详细说明：

The Delta Phenomenon

or The Hidden Order in All Markets
By Welles Wilder®

在华尔街,三角洲理论是所有的顶尖交易员密而不宣的葵花宝典

如今新时代股民超市独家引进并翻译成中文版

让你有机会领略当今世上最尖端的交易技术!

真理往往是最简单的，以至于经常使人视而不见

本文将揭开一个隐藏千年的秘密

带领你走向技术分析的最高殿堂

你将会感到惊奇，并体验“针刺般震惊的感觉”

本文的作者，技术分析指标的鼻祖：Welles Wilder. 发明了RSI，DM，抛物线，摆动指数，动力指标等。
　　 1983年，在Wilder江湖地位日渐攀升之时，他接到了一个电话，说要卖给他一个关于市场的秘密，而且开出了一个天价。作为一个技术分析方面的权威，接到这种电话是家常便饭，已经见怪不怪了。

　　但是当对方跟他解释到自己的发现跟波浪理论、费波纳奇神奇数列、江恩理论、循环周期理论没有任何关系时，引起了Wilder的注意。

　　几天后，他到了芝加哥，见到了电话中的人。

　　此公名叫Jim Sloman，从小聪颖过人，获得国家级奖学金进入普林斯顿大学攻读数学。

　　他给Wilder看了一张图，几分钟后，Wilder看明白时，惊得目瞪口呆，半晌方能出声。

　　随后，他问了Jim一些关于这个图表的原理等方面的问题，都得到了满意的答复。

　　Wilder当时就开出了一百万美元的支票，买下了这个秘密。

　　当天坐飞机回到家后，Wilder作出重大决定，平掉一切交易中的头寸，闭关半年，验证这个发现。

　　他搜集了有历史记录的200年的日交易资料和300年的周线、月线资料，逐个验证。

　　半年后，终于完成了求证过程，证明了该发现的神奇之处。

　　这就是Delta，证券期货界的“宝刀屠龙”出现江湖的故事。

     1986年以后，Welles Wilder基本退隐江湖，专职为自己操盘，在此之前出了（他自己认为的）最后一本书“亚当理论”。近年又有了复出江湖的迹象，而且还出了另一本奇书：“The Delta Phenomenon”（三角洲理论）。 令人好奇的不仅是他的著作，更是他的交易理念的转变过程，从一个技术指标的积极发明者，突然一变为一个三角洲理论的忠实信徒，实在令人匪夷所思。

　　更奇的是，“三角洲理论”和“亚当理论”都是由另一个当世奇人发明的。

　　原来纵横天下的Wilder一见此人，立时甘拜下风，放弃了自己之前所有的信仰。

　　三角洲理论的应用非常简单，可以说5岁小童即可以操作，我们那个习惯了复杂思维的大脑，一见之下，可能会大呼：“不可能吧，就是这么简单？”

　　是的，我想说的是，往往最简单的就是真理。

来自作者的个人建议

在阅读本书之前，请先读以下内容：

多数人在拿到一本新书的时候，第一件事情是读目录，然后迅速浏览全书，以便对书中将涉及的内容有一个印象。

对DELTA现象，请不要这样做。

      我努力像这样写这本书，如同带你历险，去发现在市场里隐藏的次序。你将会感到惊奇….并体验“针刺般震惊的感觉”，那正是我第一次看到这些内容时的感觉…如果你从头开始看，直到书的结尾。

    你将读到的内容是完全令人吃惊的，它是一个保守了千年的秘密。我确信在你读这本书以前，还从来没有人揭开这个秘密。

    我已经教过DELTA现象有上百次给差不多上百人（一对一的）。这些人（都是精心从应征者中挑选的）大都递给我一张$35,000的支票，然后说，“现在给我讲一讲付费的内容吧。”我从来没有看到任何人有过失望。正相反，大部分人都表示，他们得到的远比他们所支付的要值。

      现在，我就使用我已经使用了上百次的方法，同样地来教你们。我假设你们都已经读过我在本书前言里提到的两份DELTA资料。所以，我就从第一次看到DELTA次序讲起，然后教给你我从那时起步所学到的一切。

本资料为中文翻译版，A4纸123页激光打印版，并附送原版英文版

目录

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Prologue ........................................................................... 1序言

Foreword .......................................................................... 4前言

Table of Contents .............................................................. 39 目录

Part I The Delta Phenomenon ................................................... 40 delta现象

Part II The Moment of Truth ........................................................ 61关键时刻

Part III Intermediate Term Delta (ITD) .......................................... 76

Part IV The Family Groups ........................................................... 97

PartV Medium Term Delta (MTD) ............................................... 106

Part VI Long Term Delta (LTD) ..................................................... 117长线delta

Part VII Super Long Term Delta (SLTD) ........................................ 147超长线delta

Part VIII Short Term Delta .............................................................. 160短线delta

Part IX Trading the Delta Turning Points ...................................... 180 delta转折点交易

Part X Solving For Delta .............................................................. 191  delta的解决方案

Epilogue ........................................................................... 193结束语

 翻译片段------74

Now, even though we know the Delta order is perfect, unfortunately, for me, the exact date of the high and the exact date of the low (of the high/low rotation) is not perfect. If it were, you would not be reading this book and I would have, by now, accumulated more wealth than anyone else in this world! （现在，即使我们知道三角洲次序是完美的，但很不幸的是，对我来说，循环的高点和低点的精确时间是不完美的，如果是的话，你不会读这本书，我也不会，如今，世界上累积更多财富比其它任何东西重要。）

So. it is important to understand the difference between perfect order and perfect accuracy. Perfect order involves a phenomenon that repeats exactly within a defined reference. In this case the reference is the perfect interaction of the sun, moon and earth. （理解完美的次序与完美的精确度的不同是很重要的，完美的次序包括一个现象可以在指定的期间内严格地重复，既然这样，这个完美只能说是太阳，月亮，地球相互作用上的完美。）

Perfect accuracy defines the accuracy within the order. In this case, the accuracy is that of the turning points. That is, how close a particular turning point will come to a predicted date. Obviously, it is not possible for perfect accuracy to exist within the perfect order of markets. （完美的精确度是次序上的精确，既然这样，这个精确是指转折点的精确，换句话说，是一个精确的转折点有多接近一个精确的预测日期。显然，在一个次序完美的市场也是不可能的存在完美的精确）

If it did, every one would have discovered the order as long ago as the Romans were trading with the Phoenicians and the Greek philosophers tried to corner the olive oil market. And, if everyone knew the order, there would be no market because every trader would have exactly the same information! If every trader had the same information then there would be no trades because there would be no one to take the other side of a trade. （而且，如果所有的人都知道了这个次序，那么市场将不存在，因为每个交易者都有相同的精确的信息！如果每个交易者都有相同的信息，那么就会没有交易因为没有人成为交易另外一方）

----------76

PART III

INTERMEDIATE TERM DELTA

At this point we will cover in detail each of the five Delta time frames. We will begin with the Intermediate Term Delta (ITD) time frame by continuing the discussion on Gold. （这章，我们从细节上覆盖到5个三角洲时间周期，我们从ITD中线时间周期开始连续地讨论黄金）

Remember when I first saw the Delta phenomenon in Chicago, neither Jim nor I knew if the order we saw on those fifteen charts would continue exactly in tune with the interaction of the sun, moon, and earth or whether it would fade away perhaps to return at some time in the future. (还记得第一次在芝加哥看到三角洲现象时，JIM和我都不知道在这15张图上看到的次序将来会继续精确的符合太阳，月亮，地球的相互作用，还是其作用会在未来的某个时间逐渐减弱到零。)

Since I knew the Delta solution (the number of points and where Point (1) occurred, all I had to do was draw the colored lines on the charts and number the points. I was amazed (although I probably shouldn't have been) how everything just fell into place. It was so simple that my then twelve year old son could have done it just as well if he had known the rules. The rules also fell into place quickly as I investigated more and more markets. The major rule is as follows:

（自从我知道了三角洲的解决方案（数字点和点1在那里出现，我所要做的只是在图上画线和数字点，我非常惊讶，每个东西都在恰倒好处的地方，它是如此简单，我当时才那12岁的儿子知道了规则后，和我做的一样好。随着我研究了越来越多的市场，这些规则也很快的依次出现，主要的规则如下）

--------79
After a year of following DELTA and defining the DELTA turning points on hundreds of years of daily data. I have discovered that the markets act in different ways relative to the DELTA turning points. These actions depend on the inherent strength and weakness of the markets. I have found that all of these different behavior characteristics can be classified into only four different categories. I have qualified these four categories as NORMAL."ACTUAL. WEAK, and STRONG. Following are definitions and examples of these four categories:  (我基于数百年的每日数据，花了一年的时间从事和研究delta转折点，发现市场的实际变动不同于delta转折点，这些行动依赖与市场参与成员的弱点，我发现所有这些不同的举动可以被分类4个不同的类别，我定义这4种类别为“常态的，实际的，弱势的，强势的”下面是这4种情况的定义和例子。)
[1] NORMAL - When the markets behave normally then the swings are well defined and the turning points are very accurate . . . within a day or two of the DELTA predetermined dates for the turn. Unless there are very strong forces underlying the markets, most of the time the markets will fall into either the NORMAL or ACTUAL catagories. In Example A (1) the box with the dot represents the predicted DELTA turns. In NORMAL markets, study the rhythm of the markets that is revealed relative to the projected DELTA turns. （常态：当市场举止正常，那么波动是健康的，而且转折点非常精确。delta预计的转折日期就是一两天内，除非市场存在一个潜在的强大力量（意思可能指被庄家控制的情况），市场大部分时间运行在常态或者真实态，在下面例子中的A（1），带原点的方框表示delta预测的转折点，在常态市场，研究市场的韵律就是揭示delta相应转折方案。）
-----------84

The first Delta chart that we looked at was Gold, so we will continue that study. In the next eight pages we will see a continuous study of Gold. One thing became obvious to me as I used Jim's solution for Intermediate Term Delta. That is, major changes of direction and major moves are most likely to occur at or on each side of Point (1). In the case of Gold, the major moves tend to begin at Point (11), dotted Point (11), Point (1) or dotted Point (1).                           （一开始我们看的是黄金的delta图，所以我们继续研究，在接下来的8张图我们将看到黄金的连续研究。当我在中线时间周期使用Jim的解决方案时，有一件事对我来说是显而易见，那就是，主要的趋势变化和主要波动几乎都出现在点1或者其两边。以黄金为例，主要的移动趋向开始于点11，虚线点11或者虚线点1）

This characteristic of Delta pertains to all five time frames. There are no other Delta turning points that have this characteristic. This alone is valuable information. This characteristic is more often prevalent at low points than high points. Notice this characteristic when you study the following charts. Note how many major lows are associated with Point (1). （delta的特征适合所有的5个时间周期。没有其他的delta转折点有这个特征，这种独一无二是很有价值的信息。这个特征往往在低点比在高点普遍。当你研究以下的图表时注意这个特征。注意有多少个主要的低点和点1有关联。）

Notice also, when markets are screaming either up or down, how the four guidelines apply. You will see why I suggest that they be memorized. When you study the next eight pages, I think you will feel what I felt when I wrote in the brochure . . .（也请注意，当市场出现惊人的上下波动时，这4个指导方针是如何应用的。你就会明白我为什么建议他们要记住。当你学习接下来的8页时，我想你也会感受到我把它写进手册时的感受。）

"For the next several hours Jim explained the discovery to me. I looked at fifteen different bar charts under the projection of Jim's colored lines and numbers. It was obvious that there was an order that the markets followed. Each turning point did not necessarily come on the exact day that it should have, but it was incredibly close . . . within two or three days in most cases . . . " （明显，市场跟随着一个次序，每个转折点没有必然地出现在它该出现的精确日子上，但是，令人难以置信的接近，在大多数情况下是在2或者3天之内。）

I completed this exercise (in the fall of 1983) for the last eight years for each of the fifteen commodities that Jim had solved for Delta. It turned out that the accuracy of the fifteen commodities was relatively equal. Gold fell in the middle. Six commodities were a little more accurate and eight were a little less accurate. （到1983年底，我对Jim 已经用delta解决了的15种商品中的每一种，过去8年的走势完成了所有的训练。它显示出15种商品的精确度大致相等。黄金排在中间。其中6种稍稍精确一点，另外的8种稍次。）

-------141

If I had the data for the family groups in the Nikkei Dow, I am sure that they would be just as easy to solve for Delta as the NYSE family groups. Not surprisingly, the solution for a whole group of markets is not as accurate as the individual families in the market. In fact, when you really think about it, it is amazing that a general market, made up of many different families each having its own unique Delta order could also have its own Delta order. Although the combination of groups is less accurate than any of the individual groups, as you will see, the order is perfect! (对于整个市场的解决方案和市场中版块的解决方案不会是一样的精确度，实际上，当你真正的思考这点时，你会惊讶，市场由许多不同的版块组成的，各版块有自己独特的delta次序，整体市场也有它自己的delta次序。尽管整体市场的精确度小于单独的版块，但正如你将看到的，这个次序也是完美的。)

Now I want to show you a simple manual way to find the average point (average date) for any market, using the 9 Delta monthly turning points for the Nikkei Dow as an example. Make a table as follows: （现在，我想向你展示一个简单的手工方法来找到任何市场的平均点（平均日期），以日经指数9个delta点的月线转折点为例子，制作了下面的表格。

The order of colors (always) is Green, Red, Blue, Orange. 1986 is Green. So, what is the average date for Point (1) in 1990? Answer: Green plus 4 = April 1990! （颜色的次序总是绿，红，蓝，橙。1986年是绿，所以1990年点1的平均日期是什么，答案是：绿线加上4=1990年4月）

Try this one. What are the two average dates for the Delta turning points in 2007? Answer: January & September! Why? Because if 1986 is Green then 2006 will be Green. Therefore 2007 will be Red. What are the average dates for Red? 1 & 9. Of course, whether those points will be highs or lows depends on the rotation set by Point (2) whose Average date is October, 2006! （尝试一下，2007年的两个delta转折点平均日期是什么？答案是1月和9月，为什么？因为如果1986年是绿线，那么2006年也是绿线。因此2007年将是红线。红线的平均日期是什么？1和9，当然不管那些点是高点还是低点， 由点2划分的循环的平均日期是2006年10月。）

------165

The next two charts are of Lumber. Lumber has 8 points in its series. Point (1) for Lumber comes after the Red line. The first chart shows one complete series. Note that the location of Point (3) is right on the Blue line. This means that the point is just as likely to come near the close of that day as at the open of the following day. （木材是8点的序列，点1在红线的后面，第一张图是一个完整的序列，注意点3的位置是刚好在蓝线上。这意味着这点很可能在当天收盘价附近，作为下一天的开盘）

As we look at the STD charts, I will also comment on some of the things I have learned to recognize when utilizing STD charts for day trading. However, all of these things also apply to all Delta time frames. （当我们观察STD图表时，我也将讲一下我当利用STD图表进行日内交易时认识到的）

When a market has made the low turning point at or near the Delta location but moves sideways instead of up to its next Delta high location, then the market is telling you that there is trading pressure against the intended direction. It's "trying" to move up to the high point, but there is just too much selling pressure holding it down. We will call this the Pressure Point Situation. When this happens you should expect the coming high point to be early and you should expect the down move to the next Delta low point to be a significant move . . . one you should trade! （当一个市场在delta点位置或附近形成低位转折点时，但又不是向下一个高位移动而是移向一边，那么市场告诉你有一股交易压力反作用于市场的预定趋向。市场尽力向高点运动，但是太强的卖压使它下跌，我们称这压力点位。当出现这情况，你应该可以预期到高点会提早到来，你也应该预期到向下一个低点的下跌是个重大的下跌，你应该积极交易。）

An example of this is Points (5) and (6) on 2/24. The market is moving sideways instead of up. You should draw a line under the support at point (5) and take the short trade at the support line. （这里有个例子是在2/24的点5和和点6，市场没有向下而是走斜了，你应该在点5的支持位画条线，并在支持线位置进行短线交易）

There is even a better Pressure Point Situation when the down move is already in progress as at Point (8) on 2/24. The market is moving sideways from Point (7) to Point (8). The resistance is now an up-line. However, that does not change the situation. Instead it offers two entry points for the short trade. You should go Short the first position on the first close below the resistance line and take your second Short position when the market moves below Point (7).

 （还有一个更好的压力点位例子，向2/24的点8下跌的过程中，市场从点7向点8走斜了。现在反作用力是向上，但是情形没有改变，相反这提供了两个短线进场点。你应该在跌破支撑线第一根收盘价的位置短线操作，当市场低于点7时，进行第二个位置的短线操作（加仓）。